It is a terrible irony, and one that we don’t usually have endure in our electoral system, that a Party in third place who actually saw its representation in Parliament decrease should be almost ensured a place in the next government. Of course if the Liberal Democrats get their primary coalition precondition demand met then they will be booking themselves into every future British government, forever! The proportional system they hanker after would almost certainly make them an indispensible part of all coalitions and short lived weak coalitions will become the unavoidable future.
That at least is why they should be kept out of any future government in general. There is however an altogether different reason why Cameron should want to keep them out of a Conservative government specifically. With the biggest increase in seats the party has seen for 80 years and more people voting for them than for Labour when it received its majority back in 2005, David Cameron’s Conservatives certainly have a mandate. Yet should they enter into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, a party that ideologically opposes just about everything the Conservatives stand for, David Cameron would quickly find his ability to make the desperately needed difficult decisions utterly neutered. It would not be long before that coalition would break down and as the British public returned to the polls they would have little apatite for re-electing a Prime Minister who presided over a weak and ineffectual government but one which none the less brought them one of the most austere budgets Britain has seen for a generation.
None of this detracts from the fact that joining a Conservative led coalition would be some what of a poisoned chalice for the Liberal Democrats also, but this would in no way play in Cameron’s favour. Much of the Liberal Democrat vote comes from defected Labour supporters who can’t bring themselves to vote for the dreaded Tories along with those who see the Lib Dems as the party committed to principles over grabbing power for itself. Once the Lib Dems had shored up a Conservative government for even a short period this group of voters would rapidly melt away, many of them returning their support to Labour who would find themselves much strengthened against the Conservatives at the probably not so far off next election.
So what can Cameron do? Well he could try a minority government and then when the Liberals and Labour had blocked just about every piece of legislation his party proposed Cameron could return the country to the polls asking for a majority. Otherwise, depending on how brave he is feeling is could gamble. He could end talks with the Lib Dems in the hope they’d form a shambolic coalition with Labour, who incidentally would also need the support of an assortment of radical regional nationalist Parties if they were to have a majority. Then when that coalition inevitably collapsed the Conservatives could go into the next election with their credibility intact and as the only other credible option.
However if Cameron insists on forming a coalition with Nick Clegg then the only thing he ensures is his own inability to govern effectively, a huge drain of the support he has built up and in all probability his own demise.
That at least is why they should be kept out of any future government in general. There is however an altogether different reason why Cameron should want to keep them out of a Conservative government specifically. With the biggest increase in seats the party has seen for 80 years and more people voting for them than for Labour when it received its majority back in 2005, David Cameron’s Conservatives certainly have a mandate. Yet should they enter into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, a party that ideologically opposes just about everything the Conservatives stand for, David Cameron would quickly find his ability to make the desperately needed difficult decisions utterly neutered. It would not be long before that coalition would break down and as the British public returned to the polls they would have little apatite for re-electing a Prime Minister who presided over a weak and ineffectual government but one which none the less brought them one of the most austere budgets Britain has seen for a generation.
None of this detracts from the fact that joining a Conservative led coalition would be some what of a poisoned chalice for the Liberal Democrats also, but this would in no way play in Cameron’s favour. Much of the Liberal Democrat vote comes from defected Labour supporters who can’t bring themselves to vote for the dreaded Tories along with those who see the Lib Dems as the party committed to principles over grabbing power for itself. Once the Lib Dems had shored up a Conservative government for even a short period this group of voters would rapidly melt away, many of them returning their support to Labour who would find themselves much strengthened against the Conservatives at the probably not so far off next election.
So what can Cameron do? Well he could try a minority government and then when the Liberals and Labour had blocked just about every piece of legislation his party proposed Cameron could return the country to the polls asking for a majority. Otherwise, depending on how brave he is feeling is could gamble. He could end talks with the Lib Dems in the hope they’d form a shambolic coalition with Labour, who incidentally would also need the support of an assortment of radical regional nationalist Parties if they were to have a majority. Then when that coalition inevitably collapsed the Conservatives could go into the next election with their credibility intact and as the only other credible option.
However if Cameron insists on forming a coalition with Nick Clegg then the only thing he ensures is his own inability to govern effectively, a huge drain of the support he has built up and in all probability his own demise.
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